It’s a new race
So like most people who have spent their whole lives in and around politics, we know enough to tell you to ignore the polls.
And then right after we say that, we go looking for every poll we can find, ever mindful of that Red Wave bullshit but ever lusting after more numbers to help us make sense of what’s happening. And on Tuesday afternoon, we saw some polls that we aren’t ashamed to tell people we were looking at.
“Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states, as the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
Well hell yeah!!!
No wonder all the weirdos are acting even weirder — They’re losing!
Pretty much every poll we’ve seen since Harris got in the race suggested momentum for the blue team, but the numbers in the states definitely have our attention.
Overall, the poll finds Harris leading Trump in a statistical tie of 48 percent to 47 percent. In Arizona, she leads by 2. In Wisconsin, she leads by 2. In Nevada, she leads by 2. In Michigan, she leads by 11!
The poll also show a tie in Georgia, and Trump leading by 2 in North Carolina and by 4 in Pennsylvania.
The Pennsylvania number sucks. The Michigan number is too shocking to be real. But still, these are some great numbers for a campaign that is two weeks old and firing on all cylinders.
And it’s not just the polls. Pictures on social media throughout the day Tuesday showed people standing in line in Atlanta hours before Harris and Megan Thee Stallion were set to hold a rally.
The Democratic Party is fired up to elect Kamala Harris and embarrass Donald Trump. You can see it in the polls, in the crowds and in just how freaking weird the weird people are being.
 | A guest post by
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Forgive me for being all negative like (and long-winded), but (please prove me wrong) that crowd of >10,000 in Atlanta last night looks to me like a lost opportunity. I personally registered more than 1,000 people to vote in California in 2016 which I'm only mentioning because when you do something that many times you tend to learn things and see things. (I saw the Russian hijinks and interference before any of us knew what was going on, e.g. links emailed to first time voters who registered online telling them they could click a link to vote for Hillary in the general.) What I learned was that 9.975 out of 10 people will answer "yes" if you ask them if they are registered to vote, when (depending on neighborhood) only about 65% - 75% actually are validly registered at their current address. (Depending on neighborhood I saw it go as low as 30%.) There are apps that can tell you with a few key strokes whether someone's registration is up-to-date or not. In seeking to register people I was in front of a lot of grocery stores but I was also at Bernie rallies - that's where the thousands of people were. Not once did I see/hear voter registration mentioned from the podium. Not once did I see anything/anywhere that said. "Click this link to check your voter registration." WE ASSUME because we are political junkies that people who attend a rally to support Kamala are registered to vote and know their way around getting registered if they are not. The facts are otherwise. People think that because they voted once, back in 2008, that they are registered to vote. People think because they used to vote back when they lived at their grandma's house that they are still registered to vote. I have found even highly educated professionals who vote in every election and just brush it off as a glitch that they are asked to use a provisional ballot who Are Not Registered To Vote. At minimum I would like to see a screen with a QR code on it behind the stage while people are waiting around for each event to start. What would help me sleep at night would be an app people could use while standing in line to get in that would turn their phone screen green if they had valid registration and red if not and a link on the red screen that said, "help me get registered" that would grab phone number for follow up. Sorry, long rant. This bugs me so much. I saw crowds of thousands at Bernie rallies turn to bitterness and conspiracy at the polls. (Primary vs general, but principle is the same.)
“The Michigan number is too shocking to be real.” No, it’s not, actually. As a lifelong resident of Michigan currently residing in Dearborn — a city that has the largest U.S. population of LEGAL immigrants from the Middle East — I believe it reflects the support for Kamala by these voters.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/arab-population-by-state